Walkout Would Hit ABC the Hardest

It's hard to find a winner on the baseball strike field ofschemes.

But among the broadcast networks, ABC has the most to lose if aprolonged baseball strike wipes out postseason play.

That network is poised to pass CBS in Nielsen's prime-timeratings in the upcoming season. But ABC, a partner along with NBC inthe Baseball Network deal, would lose its share of regional telecastsand the highly rated league-championship playoff games if the workstoppage were to continue through October.

ABC executives were looking forward to higher prime-time ratingsand advertising revenues with the network's scheduled coverage of theWorld Series. Both ABC and NBC would miss the chance to promotetheir new fall programming during baseball telecasts.

"If the strike runs through September," said Janice Gretemeyer,ABC's East Coast public relations chief, "ABC plans to proceed withits regular weekly entertainment and news programming in primetime."

CBS and Fox stand to gain if the strike runs through the fall.

That's because CBS, which ended its baseball deal last year,would not face World Series competition from rival ABC.

And Fox, with its new rights to National Football Conferencetelecasts, will have a sports alternative ready. WFLD-Channel 32,Fox's Chicago station, will air the preseason football game betweenthe Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers at 7 p.m. Friday -even if there is no strike.

Cable's ESPN, TBS and SportsChannel would lose viewers withoutmajor-league baseball. "With the close divisional races and theindividual records that could be broken this season, a baseballstrike would be a shame," said ESPN spokesman Rob Tobias. "A strikewould affect our ratings on Wednesdays and Sundays, but we won't knowby how much unless it happens."

Lessening the strike effects for the cable channels is the factthat almost 70 percent of the 162-game baseball season would becompleted by Friday, and no postseason games were scheduled on cable.

Networks, independent stations like Channel 9 and cablechannels would offer commercial rebates and find new sponsors forsubstitute programs. Reruns and old movies are cheaper thanbaseball, so lower expenses can help offset the loss of games.

"Because we're so closely identified with baseball, peopleassume a strike is a catastrophe for us," said Dennis FitzSimons,Chicago-based president of Tribune Television and executive vicepresident of Tribune Broadcasting. "But it's not nearly as great aspeople imagine."

Tribune owns WGN-Channel 9, WGN-AM (720) and baseball broadcastoutlets in four other major markets.

FitzSimons declined to say how much revenue Tribune Co. standsto lose in advertising revenue. But he noted that 80 percent of theseason's scheduled telecasts already have aired, and that revenuesare far greater in the second quarter (April to June) than in thethird, anyway.

Tod A. Jacobs, analyst for Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.,estimates the strike could cost Tribune shareholders just 5 cents ashare. (Tribune is expected to earn $3.27 per share.)

FitzSimons said Tribune stands to save expenses in the form ofbaseball rights fees and production costs in the event of a strike.But he added, "From all standpoints, we'd rather not have a strike."

PBS, meanwhile, has an ace in the hole. The public TV networkwill present "Baseball," a "nine-inning" documentary miniseries by"Civil War" filmmaker Ken Burns, starting at 8 p.m. Sept. 18 onWTTW-Channel 11.

Contributing: Robert Feder and Della de Lafuente